tisdag, september 06, 2011


Schweizerfrancens knytning till euron

Jag har under en längre tid inte haft tillgång till internet. Av detta skäl har jag inte skrivit något på länge. Jag tror inte heller att mina eventuella läsare skall räkna med att flavianopolis återuppstår. Eftersom jag emellertid för tillfället har tillgång till internet och det idag finns en mycket intressant nyhet nämligen den att Schweiz knyter sin franc till euron så kan jag inte motstå att kommentera nyheten.

Schweiz knyter alltså francen till euron till kursen 1,20 franc per euro och den schweiziska nationalbanken kommer enligt egen utsago att köpa upp obegränsade mängder euro för att förhindra en ytterligare appreciering av francen. Däremot sägs det inget om hur mycket schweizerfrancen tillåts sjunka innan SNB griper in med stöd för francens yttre värde. Jag gissar därför att det blir frågan om att endast förhindra en appreciering där eurons kurs uttryckt i franc inte tillåts understiga 1,20 franc.

Detta är mycket intressant och visar att den schweiziska nationalbanken inte begriper vad den håller på med. Att endast säga att man kommer att ingripa för att förhindra en appreciering innebär ingenting annat än att man förbinder sig att inflatera valutan i enlighet med en viss formel.

Eftersom dessutom Schweiz bedriver en ytterst protektionistisk tullpolitik finns det alltså ingenting som säger att den reala apprecieringen av francen kommer att fortsätta och det är rimligen denna som är problemet. Om den reala apprecieringen fortsätter så kommer denna troligen att leda till att framför allt Schweiz' jordbruk ödeläggs.

Enligt min mening borde Schweiz istället likvidera sin centralbank och betala ut dess skulder i guld. Kursen på francen borde då sättas så lågt att de schweiziska bönderna omedelbart skulle kunna sälja sin export på världsmarknaden till ur deras perspektiv attraktiva priser. Dessutom skulle man ta i beaktande att guldpriset sannolikt kommer att fortsätta stiga, av vilket skäl man måste sätta francens kurs så lågt att bönderna inte kan förväntas bli insolventa inom den tid som kommer att förflyta fram till dess att alla deras skulder har förfallit till betalning.

Jag gissar att detta skulle innebära att guldpriset skulle skrivas upp med en faktor på 10. Samtidigt skulle man ensidigt slopa hela tullskyddet för schweiziska bönder. Med en ren guldmyntfot där endast fysiskt guld vore lagligt betalningsmedel och helt ensidig frihandel finns inte längre några förutsättningar för en alltför hög real växelkurs.

Nu skjuter man problemet framför sig och slutresultatet blir rimligen att också schweizerfrancen, liksom alla andra pappersvalutor, kommer att bli mer eller mindre värdelös.

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